What is AvT?
Actual vs Theoretical (AvT) compares your Actual Food Cost from inventory and purchases to the Theoretical Food Cost based on recipes and sales mix. The variance shows waste, theft, portioning error, wrong ring-ins, or inventory process issues.
Goal: Keep variance near zero (±1–2%). Weekly spikes signal where to audit — not where to panic.
What’s in the workbook
- Inputs: Net Sales, Theoretical COGS, Actual COGS.
- Auto-calculated: Variance $, % of Sales, % of Theoretical, 52-week chart, Summary.
- Read Me: Definitions so every manager enters numbers the same way.
How to run it weekly (5–7 minutes)
- Pick week ending date (stay consistent).
- Enter Net Sales (exclude sales tax).
- Enter Theoretical COGS from your recipe/mix export.
- Enter Actual COGS from inventory: Begin + Purchases − Ending.
- Review variance. If it’s over your tolerance (say, 2%), choose one corrective action for next week.
Data dictionary
- Net Sales: Gross sales minus comps/discounts.
- Theoretical COGS: Ideal cost to produce what you sold (recipes × sales mix).
- Actual COGS: What you actually consumed via inventory math.
- Variance: Actual − Theoretical (shown as $ and %).
Troubleshooting high variance
- Count timing: Did counts happen on the same day/time each week?
- Recipe accuracy: Shrink unrealistic yields and portion sizes to reality.
- Portion control: Check scales/scoops and line discipline on high-cost items.
- Ringing/voids/comps: Validate that discounts and voids are tracked correctly.
- Receiving: Verify weights, substitutions, invoice prices, and credits.
Next steps
- Use the Recipe Cost Card to fix broken standard recipes.
- Run a Yield / Trim / Cook Loss test on the worst-offending proteins.
- Watch Prime Cost % weekly to catch drift early.