The short version
Download this Excel sheet to track COGS weekly: (beginning inventory + purchases - ending inventory) ÷ sales = food cost %. Aim for 28-32% in 2025—anything over signals waste or theft.
The real math: food cost breakdown
Skip the theory—use actual numbers from your operation:
- Beginning inventory: $5,000–$10,000 (weekly snapshot).
- Purchases: $8,000–$15,000 (invoices total).
- Ending inventory: $4,500–$9,500 (post-shift count).
- Sales: $25,000–$40,000 (POS report).
Formula: ($ beginning + purchases - ending) ÷ sales = %. Track by category (meat, produce) for leaks.
Example: ($6,000 + $12,000 - $5,500) ÷ $35,000 = 36.4% → too high; cut waste or raise prices.
Factors that spike your food cost in 2025
Costs are up, but these hidden hits make it worse:
1. Waste and spoilage
- Over-prep: 5-10% loss on produce/meat.
- Portion creep: Extra oz per plate adds up fast.
- Theft: 1-3% "walkouts" if not tracking variances.
2. Vendor and supply chain
- Price jumps: Meat up 8-12% year-over-year.
- Yield loss: Raw to cooked shrink (20-30% on proteins).
- Delivery fees: Add 2-5% to effective cost.
3. Menu and operations
- Low-margin items: Burgers or apps dragging overall %.
- Comps/voids: Untracked "samples" inflate usage.
- Inventory errors: Bad counts hide real issues.
4. External pressures
- Inflation: Build in 5-8% buffer for Q1 2025.
- Seasonal swings: Produce costs spike in winter.
- Delivery apps: Packaging + fees add 10-15%.
Quick food cost audit
Run this weekly check in under 30 minutes:
Step 1: Gather inputs
- Start/end inventory: Count shelves, walk-ins.
- Purchases: Sum invoices (use our order guide template).
- Sales: Pull from POS, exclude tax/tips.
Step 2: Calculate and compare
- Actual %: Formula above.
- Theoretical: Sum recipe costs x items sold.
- Variance: Over 2%? Hunt waste/theft.
Step 3: Fix leaks
- Update portions/recipes if needed.
- Train on waste logs from templates.
- Re-price menu if costs shifted 5%+.
How to control food cost without cutting quality
Drop % without cheapening your menu:
- Standardize recipes. Use cost cards to lock portions—cut variance by 3-5%.
- Weekly tracking. Catch issues early with this Excel sheet instead of monthly surprises.
- Menu tweaks. Engineer for high-margin items; push stars over dogs.
- Vendor shop. Compare 2-3 bids quarterly—save 5-10% on staples.
Grab the Simple Restaurant Inventory Spreadsheet from our templates to feed accurate counts into this calculator.
Where the RPS tools plug in
This Excel is a solid start, but layer in our full stack for auto-pilot control:
- Recipe Cost Card: Build theoretical costs per dish to compare against actual.
- Restaurant COGS Calculator: Advanced version with auto-variance alerts.
- Inventory Templates: Sheets for counts, waste logs, and order guides.
- Live Menu Engine service: Ties costs to pricing—auto-updates as vendors change.
If you’re comparing DIY spreadsheets and live menu pricing to the big all-in-one restaurant platforms, our Us vs Them page breaks down why Restaurant Profit Systems is different.
Simple next step for this week
Download the Excel, plug in last week's numbers. If over 32%, audit one category (e.g., proteins) and fix one leak.
FAQs
What is food cost?
The percent of sales spent on ingredients.
Why does food cost increase?
Waste, portion creep, vendor price changes.
How do I control food cost?
Track recipes, portions, and update menu prices.