The short version
Download this Excel sheet to track COGS weekly: (beginning inventory + purchases - ending inventory) ÷ sales = food cost %. Aim for 28-32% in 2025—anything over signals waste or theft.
The real math: food cost breakdown
Skip the theory—use actual numbers from your operation:
- Beginning inventory: $5,000–$10,000 (weekly snapshot).
- Purchases: $8,000–$15,000 (invoices total).
- Ending inventory: $4,500–$9,500 (post-shift count).
- Sales: $25,000–$40,000 (POS report).
Formula: ($ beginning + purchases - ending) ÷ sales = %. Track by category (meat, produce) for leaks.
Example: ($6,000 + $12,000 - $5,500) ÷ $35,000 = 36.4% → too high; cut waste or raise prices.
Factors that spike your food cost in 2025
Costs are up, but these hidden hits make it worse:
1. Waste and spoilage
- Over-prep: 5-10% loss on produce/meat.
- Portion creep: Extra oz per plate adds up fast.
- Theft: 1-3% "walkouts" if not tracking variances.
2. Vendor and supply chain
- Price jumps: Meat up 8-12% year-over-year.
- Yield loss: Raw to cooked shrink (20-30% on proteins).
- Delivery fees: Add 2-5% to effective cost.
3. Menu and operations
- Low-margin items: Burgers or apps dragging overall %.
- Comps/voids: Untracked "samples" inflate usage.
- Inventory errors: Bad counts hide real issues.
4. External pressures
- Inflation: Build in 5-8% buffer for Q1 2025.
- Seasonal swings: Produce costs spike in winter.
- Delivery apps: Packaging + fees add 10-15%.
Quick food cost audit
Run this weekly check in under 30 minutes:
Step 1: Gather inputs
- Start/end inventory: Count shelves, walk-ins.
- Purchases: Sum invoices (use our order guide template).
- Sales: Pull from POS, exclude tax/tips.
Step 2: Calculate and compare
- Actual %: Formula above.
- Theoretical: Sum recipe costs x items sold.
- Variance: Over 2%? Hunt waste/theft.
Step 3: Fix leaks
- Update portions/recipes if needed.
- Train on waste logs from templates.
- Re-price menu if costs shifted 5%+.
How to control food cost without cutting quality
Drop % without cheapening your menu:
- Standardize recipes. Use cost cards to lock portions—cut variance by 3-5%.
- Weekly tracking. Catch issues early with this Excel sheet instead of monthly surprises.
- Menu tweaks. Engineer for high-margin items; push stars over dogs.
- Vendor shop. Compare 2-3 bids quarterly—save 5-10% on staples.
Grab the Simple Restaurant Inventory Spreadsheet from our templates to feed accurate counts into this calculator.
Where the RPS tools plug in
This Excel is a solid start, but layer in our full stack for auto-pilot control:
- Recipe Cost Card: Build theoretical costs per dish to compare against actual.
- Restaurant COGS Calculator: Advanced version with auto-variance alerts.
- Inventory Templates: Sheets for counts, waste logs, and order guides.
- Live Menu Engine service: Ties costs to pricing—auto-updates as vendors change.
If you’re comparing DIY spreadsheets and live menu pricing to the big all-in-one restaurant platforms, our Us vs Them page breaks down why Restaurant Profit Systems is different.
Simple next step for this week
Download the Excel, plug in last week's numbers. If over 32%, audit one category (e.g., proteins) and fix one leak.
FAQs
What should a food cost calculator include?
A solid food cost calculator needs fields for beginning inventory, purchases, ending inventory, and net sales. It should auto-calculate your actual food cost percentage and compare it to your target. Bonus points if it tracks weekly trends so you can spot drift before it kills your margin.
How often should I update my food cost spreadsheet?
Weekly at minimum—ideally the same day each week so your inventory periods stay consistent. Monthly is too slow; you'll catch problems 4 weeks late. Pair it with the same-day inventory counts and you'll spot variance within days, not months.
Can I use Excel instead of restaurant software for food cost?
Yes. Excel handles food cost tracking just fine for most independents. The key is consistency—use the same formulas, update prices regularly, and actually look at the numbers weekly. Software automates this, but a well-built spreadsheet gets 90% of the job done at zero cost.
What's the difference between actual and theoretical food cost in Excel?
Actual food cost comes from your inventory math (beginning + purchases − ending). Theoretical food cost comes from your recipe costs multiplied by what you sold. The gap between them is your variance—that's where waste, theft, and portioning errors hide.